Scenario

Individual

Group
 

A

B

C
  

\(y^*_1\)

\(c^*_1\) (%)

\(y^*_2\)

\(c^*_2\) (%)

\(y^*_3\)

\(c^*_3\) (%)

\(y^*_g\)

\(c^*_g\) (%)


I

Fair coin

87

Fair coin

70

Fair coin

62

Fair coin

96

II

Biased coin

76

Fair coin

51

Fair coin

51

Biased coin

75

III

Biased coin

88

Biased coin

54

Fair coin

81

Biased coin

66

IV

Fair coin

81

Biased coin

58

Biased coin

72

Fair coin

54

 In each trial, we applied one out of four scenarios (I–IV), which is defined by three stimulus sequences (A, B and C). Each of the three participants from a group viewed one stimulus sequence. Each individual stimulus sequence entails an ideal decision \(y^*_i\) and ideal confidence \(c^*_i\) that can be derived from probability computations. The ideal individual responses from each scenario determine the groups’ ideal decision \(y^*_g\) and confidence \(c^*_g\) (see “Methods” section for an example calculation corresponding to Scenario II)