Skip to main content

Table 1 Five vignettes and differential diagnoses with mean prevalence estimates, actual prevalence rates, and mean diagnostic likelihood estimates

From: Bayesian reasoning in residents’ preliminary diagnoses

  Mean prevalence estimate Actual prevalence Mean diagnostic likelihood estimate Regression weight log diagnostic likelihood on log prevalence
18-year-old woman with headache and sore throat (Martinez and Edson, 2004)
 Infectious mononucleosis 0.0040 0.0011 0.3469 0.02
 Acute viral hepatitis 0.0053 0.0388 0.0544 0.12
 Head and neck malignancy 0.0041 0.0004 0.0299 0.00
 Primary HIV infectiona 0.0075 0.0191 0.1193 0.06
Streptococcus pyogenes (group A hemolytic) 0.0081 0.0020 0.3415 0.12
19-year-old man with chest pain, fever, & vomiting (Schultz, Lassi, and Edson, 2007)
 Acute myocardial infarction 0.0200 0.0101 0.0250 0.09
 Community-acquired pneumonia 0.0806 0.0797 0.1765 0.02
 Pulmonary embolus 0.0397 0.0225 0.0928 0.12
 Myopericarditis 0.0022 0.0000b 0.3954 0.08
 Infective endocarditisa 0.0088 0.0030 0.2018 0.11
23-year-old woman with diffuse muscle & joint pain (Larochelle and Phillips, 2003)
 Hodgkin’s disease 0.0017 0.0006 0.0692 0.09
 Primary HIV infectiona 0.0081 0.0191 0.0685 0.11
 Connective tissue disease (e.g., SLE)a 0.0301 0.0431 0.6226 −0.01
 Vasculitis 0.0075 0.0088 0.1287 0.00
 Demyelinating polyneuropathy 0.0008 0.0002 0.0285 0.07
 Hypothyroidism 0.0643 0.0622 0.0528 −0.08
67-year-old woman with abdominal pain
 Abdominal aortic aneurysm 0.0062 0.0077 0.0500 0.13
 Appendicitis 0.0057 0.0010 0.1036 0.12
 Partial small-bowel obstruction 0.0249 0.0212 0.2543 0.19
 Urinary calculus peptic ulcer disease 0.0196 0.0012 0.1174 0.09
 Peptic ulcer disease 0.0558 0.0292 0.0860 0.04
 Diverticulitis 0.0248 0.0412 0.3584 0.07
61-year-old woman with knee pain and confusion (Couri and Targonski, 2005)
 Transient ischemic attack or stroke 0.0205 0.0096 0.1401 −0.13
 Encephalitis 0.0031 0.0016 0.1492 −0.02
 Connective tissue disease (e.g., SLE)a 0.0301 0.0431 0.0585 0.01
 Infective endocarditisa 0.0088 0.0030 0.3686 −0.06
 Bacteremia 0.0562 0.0273 0.2390 −0.21
  1. SLE systemic lupus erythematosus
  2. aThis diagnosis appeared in more than one vignette
  3. bTreated as .0001 for analyses