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Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications
Fig. 6 | Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications

Fig. 6

From: Illusion of knowledge in statistics among clinicians: evaluating the alignment between objective accuracy and subjective confidence, an online survey

Fig. 6

Responses to predictive positive value calculation task, N = 681. Distribution of participants’ predictive positive value (PPV) estimation and their associated confidence judgment ranging from 0 (low confidence) to 100 (high confidence). Overall accuracy was 15% (A) and dependent on the problem framing: 9% in conditional probabilities (B) & 21% for natural frequencies (C). The red line stands for the PPV (26%); all answers included in the 26 ± 5% interval were considered correct. Density contour lines highlight the most represented answers and confidence judgments among participants. In the task instructions, sensitivity and specificity were, respectively, 90 and 99%. D Boxplots comparing the confidence judgments by response correctness. Means are indicated by a red diamond shape and the counts and percentages are given in the group labels. Post hoc comparisons using Tukey’s method (emmeans R package). ****p value < 0.0001, *p value < 0.05, NS: non-significant (p value > 0.05). (E) Boxplots representing the confidence judgments of respondents by framing and response correctness. Means are indicated by a red diamond shape and counts are given on top of the plots. Tests based on a multivariate linear regression model indicated an effect of the factors “correctness” and "framing" with no interaction effect between the two factors. Type II ANOVA (F-tests) (car R package)

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