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Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications
Fig. 2 | Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications

Fig. 2

From: Illusion of knowledge in statistics among clinicians: evaluating the alignment between objective accuracy and subjective confidence, an online survey

Fig. 2

Responses to the “vaccine efficacy” exercise, N = 822. The density and box plots represent the distribution of participants’ responses for each of the 6 proposed claims. The collected data are here mapped onto a double-sided probability scale ranging from 50% (lowest confidence, the participant answered randomly) to 100% (maximal confidence judgment), both for correct (blue area) and incorrect (red area) answers. Also represented on the x-axis, the distance to the correct answer (d) is defined as a score composed both by the accuracy and confidence, ranging from 0: correct answer with maximal confidence to 100: incorrect answer with maximal confidence through 50: “I do not know”, d < 50 and d > 50, respectively, corresponding to correct and incorrect answers. Each vertical line stands for a response. The percentage of this exercise’s participants who gave a correct answer is indicated in each blue area. True claims are indicated by a green ticked box

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