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Table 2 Means and standard deviations of posterior distributions from our two-parameter nonlinear model

From: How the wisdom of crowds, and of the crowd within, are affected by expertise

Experiment

Crowd

Parameter

M

SD

BF10

1

Inner

a

0.05

0.01

1417.13

  

b

0.09

0.01

9.83 × 1014

 

Outer

a

0.10

0.02

9.78 × 1014

  

b

0.045

0.005

1.69 × 1090

2

Inner

a

0.005

0.004

0.02

  

b

0.021

0.003

4.60 × 1016

 

Outer

a

0.024

0.004

7.28 × 1014

  

b

0.003

0.001

5.14

  1. Corresponding Bayes factors are presented in the rightmost column
  2. These parameters correspond to the function a/t + b, in which a is estimated crowd variance (i.e., crowd wisdom) and b is estimated crowd bias. BF10 values ≥ 3 or ≤ .33 indicate convincing support for the alternative or null hypothesis, respectively