Estimate #

Error

Squared error

Squared deviation from average


A

1

12

144

136.11

2

− 14

196

205.44

3

3

9

7.11


Bias

MSE

Variance


0.11

116.33

116.22

B

1

0

0

0.11

2

− 2

4

2.78

3

1

1

1.78


Bias

MSE

Variance


0.11

1.67

1.56

 The true value being estimated is 0 (i.e., estimates and errors are equivalent). The two crowds consist of more (a) and less (b) estimate variance. Crowd wisdom (MSE–bias) is equal to the variance of the estimates of the crowd. Crowd wisdom is tautologically less advantageous when variance is small (b)
 Bias is the mean of the "Error" column, squared. MSE is the mean of the "Squared error" column. Variance is the mean of the "Squared deviation from average" column