Fig. 1From: Does the “surprisingly popular” method yield accurate crowdsourced predictions?Relationships between pairs of prediction methods for Study 1 (total sample). Note sp = surprisingly popular; conf = confidence-weighted; mode = democratic; 538 = Fivethirtyeight.com. Correct predictions are labeled as “c,” and incorrect predictions are labeled as “i,” with the top-left square indicating correct predictions from both methods, the bottom-right square indicating incorrect predictions from both methods, the bottom-left square indicating correct predictions from the left-labeled method but not the top-labeled method, and the top-right square indicating correct predictions from the top-labeled method but not the left-labeled methodBack to article page