Table 2 Performance (correct predictions, % correct) across aggregation methods
From: Does the “surprisingly popular” method yield accurate crowdsourced predictions?
Individual | Democratic | Confidence-weighted | Surprisingly popular | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Total sample | 60.8% | 87, 79.1% | 87.5, 79.6% | 88, 80.0% |
Self-assessed experts | 68.2% | 85, 77.3% | 84, 76.4% | 79, 71.8% |
Objectively assessed experts | 67.0% | 87.5, 79.6% | 88, 80.0% | 91, 82.7% |
Fivethirtyeight.com | 95, 86.4% | |||