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Table 1 Performance (correct predictions, % correct) across aggregation methods

From: Does the “surprisingly popular” method yield accurate crowdsourced predictions?

 

Individual

Democratic

Confidence-weighted

Surprisingly popular

Total sample

52.8%

116.5, 53.9%

120, 55.6%

111, 51.4%

Objectively assessed experts

54.9%

127.5, 59%

129, 59.7%

130, 60.2%

NFLpickwatch.com

62.3%

140.5, 65.0%

  

Fivethirtyeight.com

134, 62.0%