From: Does the “surprisingly popular” method yield accurate crowdsourced predictions?
Individual | Democratic | Confidence-weighted | Surprisingly popular | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Total sample | 52.8% | 116.5, 53.9% | 120, 55.6% | 111, 51.4% |
Objectively assessed experts | 54.9% | 127.5, 59% | 129, 59.7% | 130, 60.2% |
NFLpickwatch.com | 62.3% | 140.5, 65.0% | ||
Fivethirtyeight.com | 134, 62.0% |