Fig. 10

Results of the signal detection theory (SDT) model analysis when fit to the best-practices data set. Left: actual and estimated base rates when combined across all best-practices data. The green circle shows the actual experimental base rate and the SDT-model estimate. Each gray circle shows the estimated base rate for one of the sampled data sets (smp), with the sampled base-rate value jittered for visibility. The red lines and red x show the 10th and 90th quantiles and median of these estimated base rates. The number in the lower-right corner is the overall sample size. Middle: data results and model predictions for low- (L), medium- (M), and high- (H) confidence suspect identifications, low- (l), medium- (m), and high- (h) confidence filler identifications, and lineup rejections (R). Right: the green line shows the actual base rate in the experimental data and the red line shows the estimated base rate from the SDT model. In the upper section, the black curve shows how the model fit value changes as the model base rate varied. The number in the lower-left provides the likelihood ratio (lr) of the model when the estimated and actual experimental base rates are used. In the lower section, the gray curve shows the distribution of estimated base rates for data simulated from the SDT model with the model base rate fixed at the actual experimental base rate. The y-axis is frequency