From: Bayesian reasoning in residents’ preliminary diagnoses
Mean prevalence estimate | Actual prevalence | Mean diagnostic likelihood estimate | Regression weight log diagnostic likelihood on log prevalence | |
---|---|---|---|---|
18-year-old woman with headache and sore throat (Martinez and Edson, 2004) | ||||
Infectious mononucleosis | 0.0040 | 0.0011 | 0.3469 | 0.02 |
Acute viral hepatitis | 0.0053 | 0.0388 | 0.0544 | 0.12 |
Head and neck malignancy | 0.0041 | 0.0004 | 0.0299 | 0.00 |
Primary HIV infectiona | 0.0075 | 0.0191 | 0.1193 | 0.06 |
Streptococcus pyogenes (group A hemolytic) | 0.0081 | 0.0020 | 0.3415 | 0.12 |
19-year-old man with chest pain, fever, & vomiting (Schultz, Lassi, and Edson, 2007) | ||||
Acute myocardial infarction | 0.0200 | 0.0101 | 0.0250 | 0.09 |
Community-acquired pneumonia | 0.0806 | 0.0797 | 0.1765 | 0.02 |
Pulmonary embolus | 0.0397 | 0.0225 | 0.0928 | 0.12 |
Myopericarditis | 0.0022 | 0.0000b | 0.3954 | 0.08 |
Infective endocarditisa | 0.0088 | 0.0030 | 0.2018 | 0.11 |
23-year-old woman with diffuse muscle & joint pain (Larochelle and Phillips, 2003) | ||||
Hodgkin’s disease | 0.0017 | 0.0006 | 0.0692 | 0.09 |
Primary HIV infectiona | 0.0081 | 0.0191 | 0.0685 | 0.11 |
Connective tissue disease (e.g., SLE)a | 0.0301 | 0.0431 | 0.6226 | −0.01 |
Vasculitis | 0.0075 | 0.0088 | 0.1287 | 0.00 |
Demyelinating polyneuropathy | 0.0008 | 0.0002 | 0.0285 | 0.07 |
Hypothyroidism | 0.0643 | 0.0622 | 0.0528 | −0.08 |
67-year-old woman with abdominal pain | ||||
Abdominal aortic aneurysm | 0.0062 | 0.0077 | 0.0500 | 0.13 |
Appendicitis | 0.0057 | 0.0010 | 0.1036 | 0.12 |
Partial small-bowel obstruction | 0.0249 | 0.0212 | 0.2543 | 0.19 |
Urinary calculus peptic ulcer disease | 0.0196 | 0.0012 | 0.1174 | 0.09 |
Peptic ulcer disease | 0.0558 | 0.0292 | 0.0860 | 0.04 |
Diverticulitis | 0.0248 | 0.0412 | 0.3584 | 0.07 |
61-year-old woman with knee pain and confusion (Couri and Targonski, 2005) | ||||
Transient ischemic attack or stroke | 0.0205 | 0.0096 | 0.1401 | −0.13 |
Encephalitis | 0.0031 | 0.0016 | 0.1492 | −0.02 |
Connective tissue disease (e.g., SLE)a | 0.0301 | 0.0431 | 0.0585 | 0.01 |
Infective endocarditisa | 0.0088 | 0.0030 | 0.3686 | −0.06 |
Bacteremia | 0.0562 | 0.0273 | 0.2390 | −0.21 |